Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle Predictions & Tips - Flamengo to Claim Copa Libertadores Win

Ryan Allan

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Last updated: Wed 16 Sep 2026 03:41

Ryan Allan 2 hours ago

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Flamengo host Independiente del Valle in Libertadores quarter-final
Flamengo -1.5 AH/ Over 2.5 Goals tipped at the Maracana this week
Get our Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle tips in the Copa Libertadores

Gonzalo Plata of Flamengo (Getty Images)

Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle Predictions
Comfortable Home Win Likely
Flamengo Hold the H2H Edge
Flamengo Return to Maracana with Momentum
Independiente del Valle Edge LigaPro Thriller
Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle Team News

Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle Predictions

Flamengo and Independiente del Valle meet at the Maracana in Thursday's Copa Libertadores quarter-final second leg.

The Brazilian champions lead 2-0 after winning in Quito, and a similarly comfortable home win is likely.

I have stakes on Flamengo -1.5 AH, win to nil, and on a high-scoring home victory.

Comfortable Home Win Likely

Flamengo won their last 5 matches
Flamengo won by more than 1 goal in 7 of their last 10 wins
Flamengo kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5 wins
Flamengo won their last 3 home matches against Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches against Flamengo
Independiente del Valle lost 2 of their last 4 matches
Independiente del Valle have seen over 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 7 matches

Flamengo Hold the H2H Edge

Flamengo and Independiente del Valle have met on seven occasions since 2020. Flamengo won four games while Independiente del Valle secured two victories.

The Brazilians eased to a 2-0 win in Quito in their most recent encounter last week.

Independiente del Valle failed to score while losing all three previous away games against Flamengo.

Flamengo Return to Maracana with Momentum

Flamengo come into Thursday’s Copa Libertadores quarter-final second-leg after a well-deserved 2-1 home win against Corinthians in the Brasileirao on Sunday.

Bruno Henrique’s 89th-minute goal secured a valuable home victory for Leonardo Jardim’s side.

The Big Mengo should have won by a clearer margin, but proved profligate in front of goal. Flamengo outshot their visitors 31-3, while they also finished the match with a significantly higher xG (2.51-0.53).

Still one point clear at the top of the Brasileirao with 57 points, Jardim’s men have won each of their last five matches, including last week’s 2-0 victory in Quito.

Despite the high altitude and sustained pressure from the hosts, goals from Bruno Henrique and Leo Pereira secured an impressive first-leg win for Flamengo.

A strong home record has laid the foundations for another strong campaign. The Big Mengo bagged victories in seven of their last eight competitive home fixtures, including each of their last four matches at the Maracana.

Independiente del Valle Edge LigaPro Thriller

Independiente del Valle travel to Brazil after a thrilling 3-2 win against Libertad in the LigaPro Serie A on Sunday.

In a topsy-turvy contest, goals from Matias Perello, Yandri Vasquez and Steven Gongora secured an entertaining victory in Loja.

Both teams created plenty of chances, with Independiente del Valle registering 21 of the 40 shots. The Ecuadorian champions also posted the higher xG total, leading 2.48 to 1.77.

Joaquin Papa’s side had won just one of their previous four fixtures before last weekend’s hard-fought victory. The 3-2 result was also Independiente del Valle’s third win by that scoreline in the space of a month.

Before their recent downturn in form, Independiente had secured 16 successive victories between May and August.

Frequently involved in high-scoring outcomes, at least three goals were scored in seven of their last nine fixtures. An average of exactly three goals per game was scored in those matches.

Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle Team News

Flamengo: (4-2-3-1) Agustin Rossi; Emerson Royal, Leo Ortiz, Leo Pereira, Ayrton Lucas; Erick Pulgar, Jorginho; Jorge Carrascal, Giorgian de Arrascaeta, Samuel Lino; Bruno Henrique

Flamengo boss Leonardo Jardim has a couple of injury worries ahead of the return leg.

Alex Sandro is sidelined with tendonitis, while Evertton Araujo is recovering from a hamstring injury.

Independiente del Valle: (4-2-3-1) Aldair Quintana; Daykol Romero, Mateo Carabajal, Richard Schunke, Layan Loor; Jordy Alcivar, Hugo Quintana; Aron Rodriguez, Junior Sornoza, Emerson Pata; Carlos Gonzalez

Head coach Papa has three players listed as unavailable this week.

Juan Cazares, Guido Villar and Jean Arroyo are expected to miss the trip to Rio.

Verdict

Flamengo v Independiente del Valle

Flamengo boast a superb home record, while Independiente often struggle on their continental travels.

I’m splitting my stakes on Flamengo -1, win-to-nil and a high-scoring home win.

Flamengo -1

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Ryan is a Barcelona-based football fanatic with 10+ years of experience as a sports writer and statistical analyst. He covers a number of leagues including from his native Scotland, Italy, Germany and more.

A huge fan of the goal markets, he specialises in BTTS and over 2.5 goal picks from the MLS to the Bundesliga and beyond.

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