Toluca vs Santos Laguna Predictions & Tips - Toluca Tipped to Claim Simple Liga MX Win

Ryan Allan

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Last updated: Thu 17 Sep 2026 14:05

Ryan Allan 4 hours ago

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Toluca welcome Santos Laguna to Estadio Nemesio Diez in Liga MX
Toluca -1 to win tipped against Santos Laguna on Monday
Get our Toluca vs Santos Laguna tips in Liga MX

Federico Vinas of Toluca (Getty Images)

Toluca vs Santos Laguna Predictions
Toluca Maintain Superb Form
Toluca Dominate Santos in H2H Record
Toluca Continue Strong Start
Santos Laguna Finally Secure Liga MX Win
Toluca vs Santos Laguna Team News

Toluca vs Santos Laguna Predictions

Toluca and Santos Laguna meet at Estadio Nemesio Diez in the Liga MX Apertura on Monday.

The league leaders have been in excellent form, and they should breeze past struggling Santos Laguna.

Toluca should cover a -1 handicap, while I also expect the hosts to win to nil on Monday.

Toluca Maintain Superb Form

Toluca won 7 of their last 8 matches
Toluca kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 6 matches
Toluca won by more than 1 goal in 5 of their last 6 wins
Toluca won their last 5 home matches against Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna lost 6 of their last 8 matches
Santos Laguna lost by more than 1 goal in 3 of their last 6 defeats
Santos Laguna failed to score in 3 of their last 6 matches

Toluca Dominate Santos in H2H Record

Toluca and Santos Laguna have met on fourteen occasions since 2020. Toluca won nine games while Santos Laguna secured four victories. One meeting ended in a draw.

Toluca Continue Strong Start

Toluca return to Estadio Nemesio Diez after a narrow 1-0 away victory at Puebla on Wednesday.

Jose Pachuca's own goal proved the difference as Antonio Mohamed’s men secured a well-deserved victory.

The visitors created the superior chances at Estadio Cuauhtemoc, recording a final xG total of 1.95 compared with Puebla’s 0.56.

An outstanding run of form has seen Toluca win their last seven games, including a fine 5-2 victory against Atlas in their most recent home fixture.

That 5-2 success was the exception, with Mohamed’s side keeping clean sheets in five of their other six wins over the past month.

Toluca remain top of the Apertura with nineteen points from eight games, having scored eighteen goals and conceded only six.

A dominant recent record against Santos should only add to the hosts' confidence this weekend. The Red Devils won nine of their last 11 encounters since 2021.

Santos Laguna Finally Secure Liga MX Win

Santos Laguna travel to Toluca after a much-needed 2-1 comeback victory against FC Juarez on Monday.

Oscar Estupinan put Juarez ahead from the penalty spot, but goals from Ezequiel Bullaude and Esteban Lozano completed the turnaround.

Santos were good value for their first Liga MX win of the season, registering 25 shots and a higher xG total of 3.19 compared with Juarez’s 12 efforts and 1.58 xG.

Los Guerreros had endured a miserable run of form before last weekend’s success. Laguna lost eight of ten previous fixtures, including six of their first seven Liga MX results.

On the road, Renato Paiva’s side have been particularly poor. Santos lost each of their last seven Liga MX games since March.

While the visitors showed much more attacking quality in their win against Jurarez, they have struggled badly in front of goal this season. Laguna failed to score in six of their last nine matches.

Toluca vs Santos Laguna Team News

Toluca: (5-2-3) Luis Garcia; Diego Barbosa, Bruno Mendez, Federico Pereira, Everardo Lopez, Jesus Gallardo; Víctor Guzman, Nicolas Castro; Federico Vinas, Jesus Angulo, Paulinho.

Head coach Mohamed could make one or two changes to his first XI this weekend. Víctor Guzman is tipped to earn a recall after a 45-minute substitute appearance against Puebla.

The hosts have four confirmed injury absentees, with Ivan Lopez, Marcel Ruiz, Erick Gutierrez and Santiago Simon expected to remain sidelined.

Santos Laguna: (4-3-3) Carlos Acevedo; Mauricio Cuevas, Franco Pardo, Felipe Sanchez, Efrain Orona; Facundo Caseres, Fran Villalba, Ezequiel Bullaude; Diego Gonzalez, Esteban Lozano, Kevin Palacios.

Santos boss Paiva is expected to keep much of the XI that started the 2-1 win against FC Juarez.

Esteban Lozano could come into the side after a goal-scoring substitute appearance last time out.

Lucas Di Yorio and Bruno Amione are the only players ruled out of this weekend’s Liga MX contest.

Verdict

Toluca v Santos Laguna

Toluca should have little problem overcoming a Santos Laguna side that continues to struggle in their Liga MX travels.

I have my stake on Toluca -1 and the hosts to win to nil at Estadio Nemesio Diez.

Toluca -1

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Ryan is a Barcelona-based football fanatic with 10+ years of experience as a sports writer and statistical analyst. He covers a number of leagues including from his native Scotland, Italy, Germany and more.

A huge fan of the goal markets, he specialises in BTTS and over 2.5 goal picks from the MLS to the Bundesliga and beyond.

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