New Zealand vs Italy Betting Tips - Italy can cover against New Zealand in Nations Championship
Italy takes on the All Blacks in a matchup where history favors New Zealand, who have won all 17 past encounters and six of their last seven games. However, Italy has shown marked improvement over the past two years, defeating strong teams like England and Australia. While the All Blacks are expected to dominate, Italy may keep the scoreline respectable and stay within the 32.5-point handicap. Both teams will make lineup changes, with Italy needing to return to top form after recent losses.
- All Blacks won all 17 matches vs Italy
- Italy improved but lost last two games
- Italy backed to finish within 32.5-point handicap
Italy have a very good and competitive side, as results have shown recently. While beating the All Blacks might prove a step too far, they can certainly get withing 32.5 points.
- Key Stats - All Blacks Expected to Dominate
- New Zealand have Never Lost to Italy
- New Zealand Fortunate Escape Last weekend
- Italy Need to find their Way Back to Form
- New Zealand vs Italy Sarting Lineups
Key Stats - All Blacks Expected to Dominate
- New Zealand have won their last 17 matches against Italy.
- New Zealand have won 6 of their last 7 matches.
- Italy have lost their last 2 matches.
New Zealand have Never Lost to Italy
The All Blacks lead 17-0 in fixtures against Italy.
New Zealand Fortunate Escape Last weekend
New Zealand were fortunate last weekend in their opening Nations Championship fixture, beating France 34-32 at home. Regardless, it was an important win to get the tournament underway.
While the new coaching staff settle in at the All Blacks, things may take some time to come right. Consistency may elude them for their first few games, but this fixture against Italy, a team they have never lost to, should offer another opportunity to build on their plan.
Despite not having the best 2025, New Zealand have still won six of their last seven matches, including their first 2026 win last weekend.
Italy Need to find their Way Back to Form
Italy are a vastly improved side over the last two years and have become a team that can beat most teams on their day. They proved that during the Six Nations earlier this year, finishing fourth and beating England.
Italy also beat Australia at the end of 2025, so they should be confident, however, their most recent form has not been convincing. After beating England in Rome, the Italians lost 31-17 in Wales before going down 27-10 to Japan last weekend.
They will make changes to their side, but the Italians will have to be far better than they were last weekend if they wish to compete with the All Blacks.
New Zealand vs Italy Sarting Lineups
New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leroy Carter, 10 Ruben Love, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Ardie Savea (captain), 7 Luke Jacobson, 6 Wallace Sititi, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Sam Darry, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 George Bower, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Anton Segner, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Josh Moorby.
Italy: 15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Malik Faissal, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Louis Lynagh, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Stephen Varney, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (captain), 6 Ross Vintcent, 5 Andrea Zambonin, 4 Niccolo Cannone, 3 Marco Riccioni, 2 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 1 Danilo Fischetti.
Replacements: 16 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Muhamed Hasa, 19 Giulio Marini, 20 Federico Ruzza, 21 Riccardo Favretto, 22 Alessandro Garbisi, 23 Leonardo Marin.
Verdict
I am backing Italy to get within the 32.5 handicap against the All Blacks.
Italy +32.5
Handicap
@-109.89 - 5 Units
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