Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett Betting Tips – Pimblett To Claim Interim Crown At UFC 324
Paddy Pimblett is favored to secure a submission victory against Justin Gaethje in their upcoming fight, leveraging his excellent submission skills against Gaethje's known vulnerability in submission defense. Pimblett boasts a 7-0 record in the UFC, including three submission victories. Despite Gaethje’s past successes and reputation as a formidable opponent, his susceptibility to submissions and recent record of mixed results put him at a potential disadvantage. Thus, Pimblett's strategic advantage lies in his ability to bring the fight to the ground and secure a victory within five rounds.
- Pimblett aims for a submission win over Gaethje
- 2 of Gaethje's last 3 defeats involved submissions.
- Pimblett boasts a 7-0 undefeated streak in UF
- Key Numbers – Pimblett To Score 4th Sub Win In UFC?
- 3 Defeats In Last 7 For Justin Gaethje
- Paddy Pimblett Boasts 7-0 Record In UFC
Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett Betting Tips
Paddy Pimblett is tipped to win the interim lightweight title via submission.
Pimblett has showcased his submission skills throughout his UFC career, while one of the biggest flaws in Justin Gaethje’s game is his submission defence.
Key Numbers – Pimblett To Score 4th Sub Win In UFC?
- Paddy Pimblett has 3 submission wins in the UFC
- Paddy Pimblett has stopped 7 of his last 9 opponents
- 2 of Justin Gaethje’s last 3 defeats have been by submission
- All 5 of Justin Gaethje’s career defeats have been via stoppage
3 Defeats In Last 7 For Justin Gaethje
Justin Gaethje is a former interim lightweight champion and is the current number four ranked contender with a career record of 26-5 (20 KOs, 1 Sub).
Gaethje debuted in the UFC back in 2017 and got off to a rough start as he was knocked out in his first two fights for the world’s premier MMA promotion.
He started to turn things around the following year thought and went on to record three straight first-round knockout wins, beating James Vick, Edson Barboza and Donald Cerrone.
The 37-year-old American earned a shot at the interim lightweight title with those victories, and he claimed the belt with a fifth round knockout of Tony Ferguson.
Gaethje then failed to gain full championship status as he was submitted by Khabib Nurmagomedov in the second round, only to rebound with a points win over Michael Chandler.
That set up a fight with Charles Oliveira for the vacant lightweight title in May 2022, and he again came up short as he was submitted in the very first round.
‘The Highlight’ put that behind him with a majority decision over Rafael Fiziev the following March, and he then claimed the symbolic BMF title with a second-round knockout of Dustin Poirier four months later.
Gaethje dropped the ‘championship’ in his only outing of 2024, losing to Max Holloway via fifth round knockout, only to rebound in March of last year with a points win over Rafael Fiziev.
Paddy Pimblett Boasts 7-0 Record In UFC
Paddy Pimblett is the current number five ranked lightweight contender with a professional record of 23-3 (7 KOs, 10 Subs).
Pimblett finally signed with the UFC in September 2021 after a successful run on the UK domestic scene that saw him win the Cage Warriors featherweight crown.
He enjoyed a successful UFC debut as he knocked out Luigi Vendramini in the first round, and he backed that up in 2022 with three more victories.
The 31-year-old Englishman submitted Rodrigo Vargas in the first and Jordan Leavitt in the second, before out-pointing Jared Gordon over three rounds.
Pimblett did not fight again for 12 months, but he did make up for lost time as he took down former interim lightweight champion Tony Ferguson on points.
‘The Baddy’ followed that up with a submission win over King Green in his only fight of 2024, and then made it 7-0 in the UFC as he knocked out Michael Chandler in round three in his sole outing of 2025.
Verdict
Justin Gaethje showed in his most recent outing that there is still some gas in the tank, but we are not expecting him to make it back-to-back victories.
Paddy Pimblett has the skillset to get Gaethje to the mat and submit him inside five rounds.
Paddy Pimblett has the skillset to get Gaethje to the mat and submit him inside five rounds.
Pimblett by Submission
Method Of Victory
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Pimblett Sub or Dec
Method Of Victory Double Chance
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